Who has the best chance of winning the Four Hills Tournament?
As usual, the Four Hills Tournament starts at the end of the year. The competitions take place on 29 December (Oberstdorf), 1 January (Garmisch-Partenkirchen), 4 January (Innsbruck) and 6 January (Bischofshofen). Who has the best chance of overall victory? Will the Poles join the fight for the top places? Read on to find out.
Four Hills Tournament: Domen Prevc the main favourite
There is much to suggest that the jumpers who count most in the German-Austrian competitions will be those who have shown the best form so far in the 2025/26 World Cup.
Domen Prevc is currently the clear leader (850 points after 11 competitions). The Slovenian made a decent start to the season (4th and 2nd place in Lillehammer). He then finished 13th in Falun, but in the 2nd competition in Sweden he was back on the podium (3rd place).
Since then the Slovenian has been in superb form. He has won 5 competitions in total, and in the other two he finished 3rd and 2nd:
● 29 Nov 2025 (Ruka): 3rd place
● 6 Dec 2025 (Wisła): 1st place
● 7 Dec 2025 (Wisła): 1st place
● 13 Dec 2025 (Klingenthal): 1st place
● 14 Dec 2025 (Klingenthal): 1st place
● 20 Dec 2025 (Engelberg): 1st place
● 21 Dec 2025 (Engelberg): 2nd place
So the 26-year-old has an exceptional opportunity to win the overall Four Hills Tournament for the first time in his career. Until now Domen Prevc's best result came in the 2019/20 season, when he finished 7th. Now he is in great form and, according to experts, has the best chance of overall victory.
Ryoyu Kobayashi will also be very dangerous
The Japanese jumper is also among the top favourites. The 29-year-old is currently 2nd in the World Cup standings (651 points).
The Japanese jumper made a solid start to the 2025/26 season, but at that time his form still fluctuated. Now the 29-year-old's form looks settled, and he is finishing near the top more and more often.
In the previous 6 competitions Ryoyu Kobayashi finished on the podium 67% of the time:
● 6 Dec 2025 (Wisła): 3rd place
● 7 Dec 2025 (Wisła): 2nd place
● 13 Dec 2025 (Klingenthal): 5th place
● 14 Dec 2025 (Klingenthal): 3rd place
● 20 Dec 2025 (Engelberg): 6th place
● 21 Dec 2025 (Engelberg): 1st place
Greater experience and past successes also count in the Japanese jumper's favour. The 29-year-old already knows what it is like to win the Four Hills Tournament, having come out on top as many as 3 times:
● 2018/19 season: 1st place
● 2021/22 season: 1st place
● 2023/24 season: 1st place
Domen Prevc is the main favourite, but Ryoyu Kobayashi also has a good chance. The Four Hills Tournament looks set to be fiercely contested, and the Japanese jumper can perform under pressure. I have also noticed a pattern. Last season (in the final competition before the German-Austrian event) the podium was Daniel Tschofenig, Jan Hoerl and Stefan Kraft. And the last Four Hills Tournament was won by... Daniel Tschofenig, ahead of Jan Hoerl and Stefan Kraft. This time the 2nd competition in Engelberg went to Ryoyu Kobayashi, ahead of Domen Prevc and Felix Hoffmann. I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, says Krzysztof Rymarczyk, an expert at Bukmacher-Legalny.pl.
Kacper Tomasiak is Poland's biggest hope
Recent Four Hills Tournaments have not gone well for the Polish team... In the 2024/25 season the best Pole was Paweł Wąsek, who finished 8th. The placings of the other Poles left a lot to be desired:
● Dawid Kubacki: 32nd place
● Jakub Wolny: 33rd place
● Piotr Żyła: 38th place
● Aleksander Zniszczoł: 40th place
In 2023/24 the best placed was Kamil Stoch, in 15th. The other Poles did not impress either:
● Piotr Żyła: 17th place
● Aleksander Zniszczoł: 24th place
● Dawid Kubacki: 30th place
● Paweł Wąsek: 33rd place
● Maciej Kot: 43rd place
Now the Pole with the best chance (of upsetting the main favourites) is Kacper Tomasiak. He is 13th in the World Cup standings (202 points).
The 18-year-old has already finished close to the podium several times this season, the first time on 7 December 2025 (in the 2nd competition in Wisła), when he was 5th.
The Pole also jumped well in the last competition before the Four Hills Tournament. In Engelberg he finished 5th, and history shows that good form there carries over into results during the German-Austrian event itself.
A podium place will of course be hard to achieve (not least because the teenager has never competed in the Four Hills Tournament before), but fans are hoping that Kacper Tomasiak will live up to expectations. And regular placings close to the very top would be a great sign for the rest of the season.
Who else made the Polish team?
Besides debutant Kacper Tomasiak, the following were also selected:
● Kamil Stoch (38, 3-time Four Hills Tournament winner)
● Piotr Żyła (38, 2nd place in the 2016/17 season)
● Maciej Kot (34, 4th place in the 2016/17 season)
● Paweł Wąsek (26, 8th place in the 2024/25 season)
Some may be surprised that Dawid Kubacki is not in the squad; he will be competing in the Continental Cup.